The number of home sales recorded over Canadian MLS Systems was virtually unchanged (-0.1%) on a month-over-month basis in March, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association. But activity came in 2.3% below March 2025.
Also the MLS Home Price Index fell 0.4% month-over-month and was down 4.7% on a year-over-year basis. The non-seasonally adjusted national average home price was $673,084 in March, dipping 0.8% from the same month last year.
“Home sales activity remained at lower levels in March, as rising global economic uncertainty, along with a mid-month jump in fixed mortgage rates tied to incoming higher inflation, piled on to an already shaky economic start to the year,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist.
“2026 is still expected to see a modest amount of upward momentum in sales and a stabilization in prices as some pent-up first-time buyer demand enters the market, but the forecast for the year has had to be revised downward. The timing of higher mortgage rates, along with the perception they may be temporary, could keep would-be buyers away at the most active time of year – April, May, and June – as they wait for rates to come back down.”
CREA also updated its 2026 and 2027 forecasts for home sales activity and average home prices.
“The major factor underpinning CREA’s long-standing forecast for higher activity going forward is the idea that pent-up demand, particularly from first-time buyers, would start to emerge from the sidelines after having been shut out of the market over the past four years. An important milestone for that to begin has been interest rates no longer expected to fall, as well as for home prices to likewise no longer be in decline in those parts of Canada where they have been,” it said.
“That said, beginning in the second half of March, inflation from the spike in oil prices raised the odds of a Bank of Canada rate hike later this year, raising bond yields and resulting in a jump in fixed mortgage rates. Higher mortgage rates are expected to curtail activity on their own, but the idea that the oil shock may be short lived will likely also cause many buyers to wait for rates to come back down, further dampening activity at the most active time of the year for housing markets.
“That, along with a generally tepid start to the year for Canada’s economy and weaker than expected housing activity in the first three months of the year has resulted in a downgrade to CREA’s forecast.”
CREA said 474,972 residential properties are forecast to trade hands in 2026, representing an increase of 1% over 2025. As previously forecast, the national gain is still expected to be driven largely by British Columbia and Ontario where sales have more room to recover. Activity is forecast to rise only modestly or decline in other provinces where activity had previously been elevated due in part to record population growth which is no longer a factor.
The national average home price is forecast to rise 1.5% on an annual basis to $688,955 in 2026, with virtually no growth in B.C., Alberta, and Ontario, and gains fading into the 2% to 5% range in other provinces.
In 2027, national home sales are forecast to climb a further 2.1% to 485,071 units. That said, this number could be revised above the 500,000 mark should higher interest rates prove unnecessary to fight inflation.
The national average home price is forecast to edge up by 0.9% from 2026 to $695,094 in 2027, with gains held to below inflation across the board. As with sales activity, this number may be subject to an upward revision should the currently oil shock and associated inflation prove short lived.
This forecast would mark years six and seven that the national average home price has hovered close to the $700,000 mark.
Mario Toneguzzi
Mario Toneguzzi is Managing Editor of Canada’s Entrepreneur. He has more than 40 years of experience as a daily newspaper writer, columnist, and editor. He was named in 2021 and 2024 as one of the top business journalists in the world by PR News. He was also named by RETHINK to its global list of Top Retail Experts 2024, 2025 and 2026.
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