Canada failed to keep pace with the United States in private-sector job creation between 2019 and 2024, adding no net jobs per 1,000 working-age people compared with 7.6 in the U.S., according to a new study by the Fraser Institute.
The study, Comparing Private Sector Job Creation in Canadian Provinces and U.S. States 2019-2024, examines employment growth after adjusting for changes in the working-age population. It estimates that Canada would have had an additional 554,000 private-sector jobs in 2024 if its job creation had matched the U.S. rate over the five-year period.
The findings also show significant differences among Canadian provinces, with nine of the 10 recording declines in private-sector employment relative to their working-age populations. Newfoundland and Labrador was the only province to post a gain.
"Despite political rhetoric, Canada has performed poorly compared to America in creating private-sector jobs," said Ben Eisen, a senior fellow with the Fraser Institute and co-author of the study.
Canada trails U.S. in employment growth
According to the research, the United States added 7.6 private-sector jobs for every 1,000 working-age people between 2019 and 2024, while Canada's corresponding figure was zero.
The study's population-adjusted measure is intended to account for changes in the number of people of working age when comparing employment performance between the two countries. Its findings suggest that Canada's private-sector employment growth did not keep pace with the expansion of its potential workforce.
The estimated shortfall of 554,000 private-sector jobs represents the difference between Canada's actual employment performance and what it would have achieved had it matched the U.S. rate of job creation over the period.
British Columbia records largest provincial decline
The provincial comparisons showed that Canadian jurisdictions generally performed worse than comparable U.S. states.
Ontario recorded the weakest private-sector job growth in the Great Lakes region, while British Columbia had the poorest performance across the Pacific Northwest. Alberta also ranked among the weakest performers when compared with other energy-producing states.
British Columbia experienced the largest decline among Canadian provinces, losing 35.7 private-sector jobs per 1,000 working-age people between 2019 and 2024.
Saskatchewan followed with a decline of 26.1 jobs per 1,000 working-age people, while Ontario lost 17.8. New Brunswick recorded a decrease of 15.5, followed by Prince Edward Island at 14.4 and Alberta at 8.8.
Quebec lost 5.5 private-sector jobs per 1,000 working-age people, while Manitoba declined by 3.4 and Nova Scotia by 2.6.
Newfoundland and Labrador was the only province to record positive growth on the measure, adding 20.6 private-sector jobs per 1,000 working-age people over the five-year period.
Study challenges interpretation of employment growth
Eisen said the findings contrast with how politicians have characterized Canada's employment performance in recent years, arguing that overall employment growth does not necessarily reflect the strength of private-sector job creation when population changes are considered.
"Canadian politicians have frequently pointed to strong employment growth in recent years as evidence of a healthy labour market, but the data tell a different story," Eisen said.
"Across Canada, private-sector employment has failed to keep pace with growth in the working-age population."
The study was published Nov. 3 by the Fraser Institute, an independent Canadian public policy research and educational organization with offices in Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto, Montreal and Halifax.