A new Fraser Institute analysis estimates that achieving the Paris Agreement's target of net-zero emissions by 2050 would cost the global economy $36 trillion annually through the end of the century, significantly exceeding estimated annual benefits of $6 trillion.
The figures are outlined in a series of essays by climate and environmental analyst Bjørn Lomborg, published Nov. 13 by the Vancouver-based public policy think-tank as part of a new research and educational initiative examining the costs, trade-offs and expected results of climate policies.
The project, titled Climate Change: A fact-based assessment of costs, trade-offs, and results, was developed in collaboration with Lomborg's Copenhagen Consensus. It examines climate-related risks and the economic implications of policies intended to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
The estimates are presented in 2023 Canadian dollars and average the projected costs and benefits across the century.
Net-zero costs and benefits
One of the essays, titled Pursuing Net Zero Causes More Harm than Good, estimates that delivering on the Paris Agreement's climate commitments would generate annual benefits worth approximately $6 trillion but require annual expenditures of $36 trillion.
On a per-person basis, the analysis estimates that achieving net-zero emissions would generate benefits of $672 annually while costing $4,037 per person worldwide. When the calculations are limited to high-income countries, the estimated annual cost rises to nearly $28,933 per person.
Elmira Aliakbari, director of natural resource policy at the Fraser Institute and coordinator of the project, said the costs associated with reaching the target outweigh the estimated benefits.
"Achieving net zero emissions by 2050 is not realistic given the marginal benefits gained versus the astronomical costs incurred, which would largely be borne by the world's poorest people," Aliakbari said.
The research series examines climate policies being pursued in Canada and internationally, with a focus on their projected economic consequences and the trade-offs involved in meeting emissions targets.
Climate summits and emissions targets
A second essay, titled Why Climate Summits Keep Failing, examines the outcomes of international climate commitments and the extent to which countries have followed through on emissions-reduction pledges.
The essay points to a 2021 commitment by countries to phase out coal, noting that global coal consumption has increased since then. It also says emissions have risen in nearly every year despite repeated commitments at international climate summits to reduce them.
According to the Fraser Institute, fossil fuel emissions reached a record high in 2025. The essay also examines the Kyoto Protocol, arguing that studies have found it had virtually no impact on climate change.
Aliakbari said the institute's analysis suggests the costs of net-zero policies would substantially exceed their benefits over the course of the century.
"No matter how many lofty climate summits are held, there is no denying that every year over the 21st century, the costs of net zero policies would vastly outweigh the minimal benefits," Aliakbari said.
She added that climate policies should be evaluated using the same cost-benefit considerations applied to other government priorities.
"Climate policies should be treated like any other policy priority, by weighing the benefits against the costs and choosing policies that achieve the most benefit at the least cost. Net Zero does not pass that test."
The Fraser Institute said the multimedia project is intended to provide Canadians with research and educational material examining climate change, the risks associated with it and the economic implications of different policy approaches.
The essays, supporting data and additional information about the project are available through the institute's website at www.fraserinstitute.org/climate-change.