Canada could admit as many as 662,000 permanent residents in 2027 under overlapping federal immigration measures, potentially accelerating population growth after a period of significant deceleration, according to a new analysis from RBC Economics.
In a report published Nov. 10, RBC economist Rachel Battaglia says one-time exemptions and measures designed to help temporary residents transition to permanent residency could push next year's admissions well above the federal government's official annual target of 380,000.
The measures could also make it more difficult for the federal government to reduce the number of non-permanent residents in Canada to its targeted share of the population, while creating additional pressure on infrastructure and services.
Permanent resident admissions could reach 662,000
The federal government's latest Immigration Levels Plan maintains annual targets of 380,000 permanent residents and 370,000 temporary resident admissions. However, RBC says additional measures introduced through consecutive immigration plans could significantly increase the number of permanent residents admitted in 2027.
The previous immigration plan included exemptions for as many as 115,000 protected persons and their dependants, along with 33,000 skilled workers already in Canada over 2026 and 2027. Based on updated allocations for 2026, RBC estimates 82,000 of those admissions will carry over into 2027.
The latest plan adds another 200,000 transitions to permanent residency, bringing the potential admissions ceiling to 662,000 next year, the report says.
That would represent the highest annual permanent resident intake on record. The admissions ceiling is expected to return to 380,000 in both 2028 and 2029, with the temporary measures not scheduled to extend beyond 2027.
The government has also committed to keeping permanent resident admissions below one per cent of Canada's total population. RBC expects that threshold could be briefly exceeded in 2027 before the permanent resident population returns below it.
Temporary resident departures remain uncertain
A key factor determining the population impact of the new measures will be how many temporary residents transition to permanent residency and how many would otherwise have left Canada.
The federal government is seeking to reduce Canada's population of non-permanent residents, which RBC estimates at 2.7 million, and bring their share of the total population closer to its five per cent target.
The latest immigration plan reinforces that objective by adding 200,000 spaces for temporary residents to transition to permanent residency.
However, RBC says those transitions do not necessarily reduce overall population numbers. If temporary residents who receive permanent status would otherwise have departed Canada, their transition means they remain in the country and contribute to population growth.
The additional spaces could also free up capacity within the permanent resident admissions targets for new arrivals from outside Canada.
RBC estimates roughly 200,000 non-permanent residents already transition to permanent residency annually. To have a neutral effect on population growth, the number of transitions would need to double without reducing the number of people departing Canada.
The report points to Canada's 2024 Immigration Levels Plan as an example of the challenges involved in reducing the temporary resident population.
That plan sought to bring down the number of non-permanent residents through a combination of departures and transitions to permanent residency. However, the intended outflow fell short of the target by roughly half in 2025 and was tracking similarly behind in 2026.
Meanwhile, permanent resident admissions remained broadly on target, with more than half of those admitted representing net new arrivals to Canada rather than people already living in the country.
The larger-than-expected non-permanent resident population prompted significant upward revisions to Canada's population estimates earlier this year.
RBC says the share of non-permanent residents could fall below six per cent of the total population next year. However, even if the government successfully doubles the number of temporary residents transitioning to permanent residency, it is unlikely to achieve its five per cent target in 2027.
Housing and infrastructure implications
The potential acceleration in population growth could have implications for housing affordability and the capacity of public infrastructure, although RBC says the immediate risks to housing affordability appear limited.
The report points to an abundance of inventory in the housing market as a factor that could accommodate a modest increase in population growth without creating substantial near-term affordability pressures.
However, RBC cautions that the situation could change quickly if pent-up housing demand is released.
Other infrastructure systems, including health care, electricity grids and water management, may have less capacity to absorb additional population growth.
The extent of the population increase will ultimately depend on how extensively the temporary immigration measures are used and how many permanent resident admissions come from people already in Canada who otherwise would have departed.
Battaglia's analysis indicates that while the federal government's immigration targets remain unchanged, the additional one-time measures could produce a substantially higher number of permanent residents in 2027, with the resulting population impact dependent on the movement of temporary residents into and out of the country.