A new report suggests the potential economic implications of Alberta separating from Canada could be massive.
“Expanding on early findings released in June 2026, this report reveals Alberta is more trade exposed than any other province, would experience significant flight of both capital and labour, putting considerable pressure on public finances and therefore taxation levels,” said the Calgary Chamber of Commerce which commissioned the report by University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe.
“This report puts real data to the concerns we’ve been hearing in the business community for months,” said Deborah Yedlin, President and CEO at the Calgary Chamber of Commerce. “The evidence is clear: separation would leave Alberta with a smaller economy, fewer workers, less investment and weaker public finances. There is no windfall waiting on the other side – only a bill Alberta business and communities would have to pay.”
The report said Alberta is the most trade-exposed jurisdiction in the country, both to interprovincial and international trade, and relies heavily on foreign capital. Foreign multinational investment averages more than $3,400 per Albertan, compared with roughly $1,800 nationally, with multinationals responsible for nearly $500B in investment and 650,000 jobs per year in Alberta, it said.
“Capital has options,” said Yedlin. “A multinational company deciding where to build its next facility, expand operations or deploy new capital can choose among many jurisdictions. It also has to compete for investment dollars within the company itself. Changes to Alberta’s trade relationships, regulatory environment, borrowing costs or access to markets could therefore change its attractiveness relative to other places.”
Drawing on the Brexit experience in the United Kingdom, the report estimates separation would raise the cost of trading with both the rest of Canada and the world by five to eight per cent, driving losses in output and workers. In Calgary, more than 360,000 jobs – over 36 per cent of total employment – depend on exports, across professional, scientific and technical services, transportation and warehousing, manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, and tourism. If the city’s losses are proportional to the province’s, higher trade costs would mean 44,000 to 69,000 fewer jobs in Calgary, explained the report.
The report said 49 per cent of Albertans were born outside the province and Alberta relies heavily on the movement of people within the country; a new national border would make that movement more complex and could reduce Alberta’s ability to attract new workers.
New Albertans are also responsible for Alberta being the youngest and most highly educated province, with 80 per cent of people moving to Alberta from other provinces being under 40 – bringing skills and education with them. In fact, Alberta has gained nearly $120 billion in taxpayer-funded education embodied in workers educated elsewhere – approximately one-quarter of provincial GDP, it noted.
“Alberta has benefitted directly from the inflow of labour,” said Yedlin. “Our province has successfully attracted talent from international and interprovincial markets – arriving with education other governments have paid for, are on average younger and therefore less burdensome on the healthcare system. They have filled labour shortages yielding economic growth that would not have been possible without this influx of workers.”
The report said the federal government collected about $19 billion more in Alberta than it spent in the province in 2024, but a separate Alberta would not inherit that surplus.
“Spending would rise, as the province would have to take on functions Ottawa now performs – including nearly $10 billion a year to meet the NATO defence standard and approximately $8 billion more to run federal operations – while revenues would fall by more than $10 billion because of a smaller economy,” it said.
“Closing the resulting gap would require a sales tax of about eight per cent on top of the five points inherited from Ottawa, a 10-point increase in the corporate income tax rate, or a cut of about 40 per cent to the federal transfers that reach roughly 400,000 Alberta families through the Canada Child Benefit and about 630,000 Albertans through Old Age Security.”
“Low taxes, quality public services, access to markets, investment and talent reinforce one another,”added Yedlin. “Today’s report points to a feedback loop in which weaker growth reduces revenues, fiscal pressures lead to higher taxes or reduced services, and those changes further affect investment and labour attraction. Ultimately, separation would put Alberta’s advantages at risk and undermine the predictable, business-friendly environment that defines our economy.”