Phil Soper, President and CEO of Royal LePage, discusses the real estate company’s latest House Price Survey and Market Forecast.
PRESS RELEASE
TORONTO, April 15, 2025 /CNW/ – According to the Royal LePage® House Price Survey and Market Forecast released today, the aggregate1 price of a home in Canada increased 2.1 per cent year over year to $829,400 in the first quarter of 2025. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the national aggregate home price rose a modest 1.2 per cent. While housing market activity has been softer than expected so far this year in many markets – a major shift compared to where we ended 2024 – the trend has been especially pronounced in Ontario and British Columbia, the country’s most expensive markets. Meanwhile, comparatively strong demand paired with low supply has led to price appreciation in the province of Quebec, the Prairies and much of Atlantic Canada, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty.
“Canada’s housing market entered 2025 with mixed momentum,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO, Royal LePage. “In Ontario and British Columbia, softer sales reflect consumer caution in the face of economic headwinds. In contrast, markets in Quebec, the Prairies and Atlantic Canada are demonstrating surprising resilience, buoyed by pent-up demand, falling interest rates and chronically low inventory. This uneven performance is a hallmark of a market in transition.”
According to a recent Royal LePage survey, conducted by Burson,2 49 per cent of Canadians say they are confident in the country’s economy today, including only six per cent who are very confident. Meanwhile, 43 per cent say they are not confident. Respondents in the province of Quebec are the most confident, while those in the Prairies are the least confident. Notably, Fort McMurray, Alberta, recorded the lowest level of confidence, with 75 per cent of respondents saying they are not confident in Canada’s economy today. Provincial and regional data, including in cities where U.S. tariffs are likely to have a greater impact, is available in this data chart.
“The typical spring market didn’t kick off as energetically as expected, and geopolitical uncertainty is playing a major role,” said Soper. “The new administration in Washington has rattled Canadians with aggressive rhetoric and punitive trade policy. While we were spared from the blanket 10 per cent tariff imposed on most countries in the world, targeted steel and aluminum duties – coupled with unsettling comments that called Canada’s sovereignty into question – have been enough to shake public sentiment. Even if these measures don’t directly impact housing, they contribute to a climate of caution that weighs heavily on large consumer decisions, at home and around the world.
“Still, there are signs of encouragement,” added Soper. “The recently announced 90-day pause on threatened new tariffs offers a window for diplomacy and a chance to stabilize market sentiment. Moreover, the appointment of Pete Hoekstra as the new U.S. ambassador to Canada brings a reassuring presence. A former congressman from Michigan and experienced diplomat, Hoekstra has a strong relationship with President Trump and a deep understanding of cross-border trade – especially given his state’s strong economic ties with Canada. Hoekstra’s early remarks affirming Canada’s sovereignty and the importance of our partnership sets the stage for a more constructive path forward. If bilateral stability returns, so too will broader Canadian consumer confidence,” noted Soper.
Among Canadians looking to purchase a home this year, 49 per cent say the ongoing trade dispute with our southern neighbour has caused them to postpone their home buying plans, while 51 per cent say it has not. Of those who have postponed their purchase plans, 37 per cent are concerned about a potential increase to the cost of living, 30 per cent are concerned about making a big purchase at a time of political and economic uncertainty, and 14 per cent are holding out because they expect home prices to decline as a result of the conflict.
“Canada’s housing fundamentals remain strong, and real estate activity tends to rebound quickly when uncertainty lifts,” said Soper. “Beyond trade, getting the federal election behind us should help here. Regardless, across the country, we are seeing savvy buyers step off the sidelines, taking advantage of stable prices, growing inventory and falling rates.”
The Royal LePage National House Price Composite is compiled from proprietary property data nationally and regionally in 64 of the nation’s largest real estate markets. When broken out by housing type, the national median price of a single-family detached home increased 2.8 per cent year over year to $868,700, while the median price of a condominium increased 1.0 per cent year over year to $598,000. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, home prices remained virtually flat, with the median price of a single-family detached home increasing a modest 1.5 per cent, and the median price of a condominium rising just 0.9 per cent. Price data, which includes both resale and new build, is provided by RPS Real Property Solutions, a leading Canadian real estate valuation company.
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1 Aggregate prices are calculated using a weighted average of the median values of all housing types collected. Data is provided by RPS Real Property Solutions and includes both resale and new build. |
2 Burson used the Leger Opinion online panel to survey 2,417 Canadians, aged 18+ between April 2, 2025 and April 9, 2025. No margin of error can be associated with a non-probability sample (i.e., a web panel in this case). For comparative purposes, a probability sample of 2,417 respondents would have a margin of error of ±2%, 19 times out of 20. |
Canada’s economic outlook
Global financial markets have experienced significant volatility in recent weeks, mirroring the broad economic unease triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies. In the face of these challenges, Canada has demonstrated early resilience, drawing on its experience navigating past economic crises. The nation’s strong financial institutions, prudent regulatory frameworks and diversified economy position it well to manage current and future economic headwinds.
“Canada has weathered economic storms before, including the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic, emerging with a reputation for steady leadership and economic resilience,” said Soper. “The housing market continues to provide people with a reliable foundation in uncertain times, with price stability and mortgage default rates that remain among the lowest in the world. While some sectors will be harder hit than others by prolonged trade disruptions, both federal and provincial governments have the tools and fiscal capacity to support those most affected.”
At its last rate announcement in March, the Bank of Canada emphasized that monetary policy cannot resolve trade disputes, and it reaffirmed its core mandate: to keep inflation under control. Many experts believe the central bank will hold rates at its next announcement on April 16th, but that further cuts could be in store later this year. Since June 2024, the Bank has cut its key lending rate by a total of 225 basis points to reach 2.75 per cent.3
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3 ‘Pervasive uncertainty’ caused by trade war prompts Bank of Canada to drop overnight lending rate to 2.75%, March 12, 2025 |
Housing affordability remains a top ballot box issue
In less than two weeks, Canadians will head to the polls to determine which party will lead the next government. Along with the dominant issue of trade relations, housing policy is set to be one of the key issues upon which voters will be making their decision. All major parties have put forward initiatives to address supply and affordability challenges.
The Liberal Party says it plans to double the rate of residential construction over the next decade by providing low-cost financing to affordable home builders and through the use of the prefab Housing Design Catalogue, and drop the GST for first-time homebuyers on properties up to $1 million.
The Conservative Party says it plans to cut development taxes and incentivize municipalities to build more homes by converting at least 15 per cent of federal buildings into housing, defer capital gains for anyone who reinvests proceeds from the sale of an asset into Canadian businesses, and drop the GST on all new home sales under $1.3 million.
Meanwhile, the New Democratic Party says it plans to double the current rate of homebuilding, help first-time buyers enter the market by offering long-term, low-interest public-backed mortgages to Canadians, and ban corporations from buying affordable rental buildings and increasing the cost of rent.
Finally, the Bloc Québécois says it would repatriate all federal housing funds to the province, offer direct federal financial assistance for first-time buyers’down payments, eliminate the GST on certain professional services related to a home purchase, and take measures to restrict home flipping.
“Any initiatives that make housing more accessible for young families and first-time buyers – especially in our most costly housing markets – are welcome, whether achieved through incentives and regulatory reform for developers aimed at increased supply, or financial assistance for consumers,” noted Soper. “However, the decades-long shortfall of inventory our nation faces won’t be resolved overnight. It requires serious, long-term commitments and collaboration across all levels of government.”
Forecast
Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Canada will increase 5.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised down modestly to reflect the current slowdown of activity in Ontario and British Columbia. Nationally, home prices are forecast to see moderate price appreciation in the second half of the year.
Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q1-2025
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q1-2025
Consumer Confidence Survey Chart: rlp.ca/2025-consumer-confidence-survey
Mario Toneguzzi
Mario Toneguzzi is Managing Editor of Canada’s Entrepreneur. He has more than 40 years of experience as a daily newspaper writer, columnist, and editor. He was named in 2021 and 2024 as one of the top business journalists in the world by PR News. He was also named by RETHINK to its global list of Top Retail Experts 2024 and 2025.
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