Work from home trend reducing urban public transit commuters: Statistics Canada

The increase in work from home triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic has reduced the number of urban public transit commuters in Canada, reported Statistics Canada.

The study “Working from home and public transit use in Canada, 2016 to 2023” considers different scenarios and shows that depending on which one is selected, the increase in work from home appears to have reduced the number of urban public transit commuters by 290,000 to 780,000, contributing substantially to the drop in urban public transit ridership since 2019, said the federal agency.

Calgary Transit

“The proportion of urban commuters using public transit fell from 14.8% in May 2016 to 9.3% in May 2021 and partly rebounded to 11.8% in May 2023. However, measuring the impact of telework growth on public transit use is challenging because several other factors related to the pandemic—increased health concerns, stay-at-home orders and physical distancing measures—may have permanently altered the commuting behaviour of Canadians and also reduced public transit use,” it said.

In May 2023, 20.1% of Canadians usually worked most of the time from home, down from 24.3% in May 2021 and almost three times the rate of 7.1% observed in May 2016. While this increase in work from home likely reduced commuting and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions caused by transportation (Morissette, Deng and Messacar, 2021), it also put downward pressure on the revenues and ridership of urban public transit systems, many of which experienced deficits in recent years (Griffin, 2023). Partly as a result of telework growth, the number of passenger-trips in urban transit systems in September 2023 was 18% lower than in the same month in 2019, said the report.

“The increase in work from home triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic directly decreased public transit use by reducing the number of passenger-trips taken by former public transit commuters who started working partly or exclusively from home (Savage and Turcotte, 2020). It may also have reduced public transit use indirectly by reducing commute times and traffic, leading some non-teleworkers to shift from public transit to commuting by car.” it said.

“Other factors related to the COVID-19 pandemic may also have reduced public transit use. During the pandemic, fear of catching the virus may have led some workers to switch from public transit to car commuting and to stick to this new habit afterward. Along with health concerns, stay-at-home orders and physical distancing measures likely reduced public transit use directly during the pandemic. They may also have reduced traffic, providing additional incentives to transition from public transit to car use. In sum, these other factors may have led to a permanent change in commuting modes for some workers and—along with telework growth—may have led some public transit authorities to manage the resulting deficits by decreasing the number of routes. This may have reduced public transit use further.”

There is evidence that some commuters—workers who usually travel to a work site outside their residence—reduced their use of public transit during the pandemic. The proportion of urban commuters using public transit fell from 14.8% in May 2016 to 9.3% in May 2021 and rebounded partly afterward, standing at 11.8% in May 2023, said StatsCan.

“Of the 16.99 million Canadians employed in urban areas in May 2023—an estimate based on non-seasonally adjusted data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS)—13.48 million were commuting to a location outside their home for work during that month. The remaining workers—20.7% of the urban workforce—usually worked most of the time from home. Had the percentage of Canadians working from home in urban areas that month stood at its May 2016 rate of 6.1% and employment remained unchanged, at 16.99 million, the corresponding number of commuters would have been 15.95 million (93.9% times 16.99 million workers). Thus, simple calculations suggest that the increase in work from home observed from 2016 to 2023 may have reduced the number of commuters by about 2.47 million during that period,” added the report.

“This downward pressure on the total number of commuters had obvious implications for public transit use. Table 1 shows that, of the 13.48 million urban commuters observed in May 2023, 1.58 million used public transit that month.

“Assuming telework growth affected only the number of commuters and not the percentage of them using public transit, one might consider the following scenario: what would be the hypothetical number of urban public transit commuters in May 2023 if the percentage of Canadians working from home in urban areas had remained unchanged at its May 2016 rate of 6.1%? Under these conditions, the number of urban public transit commuters would have been 1.87 million instead of 1.58 million (a difference of 0.29 million or 290,000).

“However, the increase in work from home may have indirectly reduced public transit use by leading some non-teleworkers to leave public transit and start commuting by car. If so, an alternative scenario becomes relevant: what would be the hypothetical number of urban public transit commuters in May 2023 if the percentage of Canadians working from home in urban areas and the percentage of urban commuters using public transit had remained unchanged at their May 2016 rates of 6.1% and 14.8%, respectively? In this scenario, the number of public transit commuters would have been 2.36 million instead of 1.58 million (a difference of 0.78 million or 780,000).

“Thus, the increase in work from home appears to have reduced the number of urban public transit commuters by 0.29 million to 0.78 million, depending on the scenario considered.”

Mario Toneguzzi